Promo EV calculators
AU bookies compete hard on promos and the effective EV often beats any raw line on the board. Three calculators to help you work out what a promo is actually worth before you take it.
A bookie is offering a boosted price on a selection. Enter the fair price (Pinnacle if you have it, else the regular price at the same bookie) and the boosted price you can take. The calculator returns your expected value in dollars and ROI. Positive EV means the maths favour taking the bet at the boosted price.
How these calculators work
Boosted odds
A boosted-odds promo is only worth taking if the boosted price beats the fair price. Fair price is best represented by Pinnacle (a sharp bookmaker) if the market is covered, otherwise the regular price at any AU book at the same moment. Enter both and the tool converts to fair probability, then computes your expected profit in dollars. Positive = the maths favour taking it; the bigger the number, the fatter the edge.
Refund if you lose
“Money back if...” and “first bet refunded up to $X” promos have real value, but only up to the point where the refund covers the stake. If the refund is a cash refund, you effectively can't lose more than the bookie's vig on the winning outcome. If the refund is a bonus bet (SNR), the actual value is lower, because a bonus bet only pays profit not stake and you need to convert it via a lay hedge. Real-world SNR conversion is typically 65-75%; the calculator defaults to 70%.
Turnover requirement
Sign-up bonuses often come with a turnover requirement (“wager 3× the bonus at minimum 1.50 odds before you can withdraw”). The bonus is worth less than its face value because every wager grinds against the bookie's edge. This calculator uses your assumed ROI per bet to estimate what you actually walk away with. A casual punter picking lines typically returns ~-3-5% per bet; a +EV punter is closer to break-even or slightly positive. Adjust the ROI to your reality.
Where the fair probability comes from
The Punt Edge's live +EV scanner does the fair-probability work for you across every wired AU bookmaker, in real time, on the actual lines you can bet. If you find yourself typing fair odds into these calculators every day, the paid product will save you the effort.
Want live fair-price data on every AU line? Try the +EV scanner.
7-day free trial. Card required. Cancel anytime.